Page 766 - Week 03 - Thursday, 2 April 2020
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people, but some of it will cause complications around isolation. But the sector is well prepared, and Housing ACT are well prepared to make sure they keep in touch with people, particularly those who are most vulnerable.
Health––COVID-19
MR HANSON: My question is to the Minister for Health. Minister, what are the government’s best and worst-case projections of the number of people in the ACT who are likely to contract COVID-19 and, of those, how many are likely to require ward hospitalisation and ICU treatment?
MS STEPHEN-SMITH: I thank Mr Hanson for the question. The modelling that is being done in relation to this is being done at a national level and is being talked through at a local level. We heard publicly the Chief Health Officer from New South Wales indicate previously that 20 per cent of people are likely to get it. We have heard any estimate between 20 per cent and 60 per cent. The reality is that this modelling is changing all the time. We know that this is a rapidly evolving situation both globally and locally. Our health protection service and our Chief Health Officer are working very closely through the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee and their advisory and partner bodies, as well as with the local representatives on the modelling group, including people from the ANU, about what that modelling might look like for the ACT. But I am not going to stand here and give the opposition the number of people.
What we have been doing is looking at what that modelling means for our health system. We have been looking at the fact that what we are seeing globally is that around 80 per cent of people who contract COVID-19 have a relatively mild illness, and around five per cent need hospitalisation and very significant health support. We are working on the basis of these worst-case scenarios. That is what we are doing in terms of the additional health capacity across our hospital system. We are ramping up our intensive care capacity and ramping up our emergency department capacity, including with the investment that we announced today, in partnership with Aspen Medical, for 50 new treatment spaces in the temporary emergency department. But as part of the integrated service response we are looking at every possible space in every possible hospital. (Time expired)
MR HANSON: In terms of the planning for those worst-case scenarios, can you continue giving detail on the number of beds in ED and ICU, and on other capacity that is being built to cater for the worst-case scenario, should it eventuate?
MS STEPHEN-SMITH: I thank Mr Hanson for the supplementary question. In terms of ICU and ventilator capacity, there is still more work going on. As members would know, the CEO of Canberra Health Services, Bernadette McDonald, has been appointed by the Chief Health Officer to lead this work. The day-to-day capacity for intensive care units across the territory at the moment is 50. Our total capacity, using the current equipment and space, increases to 91. Then we have looked at capacity with purchases and with the Aspen model, which increases our total potential capacity to 178. We talk frequently about the need to double ICU capacity and potentially triple ICU capacity, and that is the exact work that is going on.
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