Page 452 - Week 02 - Wednesday, 21 February 2018
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To show an increase in the private sector’s share of total employment, it is best to look at the actual figures for private and public sector employment, not job vacancies, from the Bureau of Stats. These show that in the past few years the private sector’s share of employment has risen by a couple of percentage points.
But there are other indicators of private sector diversification to consider. A common one is the share of state final demand contributed by government. This was well under 40 per cent in the 1980s, before self-government. It rose to about 50 per cent in the mid-1990s but was largely under 50 per cent for the next decade. Since 2008 it has been in the range of 50 to 55 per cent. In other words, the ACT is not diversifying away from public sector dependence at all. This high and—
Mr Barr: Well, it actually is, but never mind.
MR COE: It is interesting that Mr Barr would point to a chart where I note that the actual Y axis goes from about 38 to 44; so it overdramatises the movement. Further to that, the trend looks only at the past year or two, whereas, as I just said, it was under 40 per cent in the 1980s, it rose to 50 per cent in the mid-1990s, it was under 50 per cent for the next decade, and, since 2008, it has been in the range of 50 to 55 per cent, when you look at state final demand contributed by government.
In other words, the ACT is not diversifying away from public sector dependence at all. This high and stable government share of consumption and capital expenditure, most of it commonwealth expenditure, is, of course, an important part of the explanation for the consistent and stable strong economic performance of the ACT, including low unemployment and high average wages.
The motion’s statement on service exports would also benefit from a more considered assessment of the evidence. Education exports, our largest service export category, are up 24.4 per cent, as the motion says, reflecting the location of major public universities, including the ANU. But other major service exports, such as inbound tourism, and research and development services, are down. According to the ACT treasury brief on international trade in services, inbound tourism has been flat over the past five years. Again that is an ACT government brief.
On the other hand there has been a 10.1 per cent increase in the last financial year in technical, trade-related and other business services. This includes such services as architectural, engineering and business services. Over the past five years, these services have grown by 140 per cent, to be worth $228 million.
The Canberra Liberals certainly support the motion’s call to support Canberra’s diverse growth industries, but we note that this needs to be based on careful and comprehensive analysis of what is happening rather than selective numbers carefully chosen to support the government’s political message. Of course, real analysis leads us to the real question, which is the effect of ACT government policies on businesses and households in the territory.
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