Page 2840 - Week 08 - Wednesday, 16 August 2017
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In April 2014 the Drivers of imprisonment rates in the ACT report, compiled by John Walker Crime Trends Analysis, was published and formed the basis of the projections used to inform the additional accommodation at the Alexander Maconochie Centre. For members’ awareness, this report is publicly available on the ACT Corrective Services website and explains in far more detail than I have time for today the methodology used to come to those conclusions. These projections were peer reviewed by Professor Tom Kompas, Director of the Crawford School of Public Policy at ANU. Professor Kompas concluded that the report containing the projections “could go forward as it stands and we can be fully confident in its method and conclusions”.
When reflecting on forecasting data, it is important to remember that reliability of forecasting is inherently difficult as forecasters are ultimately unable to predict what changes might occur in community factors and significant events, legislation trends and sentencing trends that develop after the forecasting has been completed. What you can have, though, is the most robust methodology possible, and a degree of confidence that can help to inform decisions.
In that context, let me turn to the population numbers for women detainees at the AMC in recent times. The maximum number of women detained at the AMC from 2009 to 2016 is as follows: in 2009 we had 18 women; in 2010, 21; in 2011, 17; in 2012, 19; in 2013, 20; in 2014, 25; then it went down in 2015 to 22; then up in 2016 to 32. As members know, in 2017 we have at one time had as many as 45 female detainees. As of today, the AMC is holding 35 women. So we are 10 down from that peak of 45 that we experienced earlier in the year. Given the upward trend in female detainee numbers, ACT Corrective Services responsibly, as they should have, began to explore female-specific long-term and short-term forecasting. The next full projections report, which includes numbers of women, is currently being finalised by John Walker, and I anticipate that it will be completed this year.
As I have noted publicly recently, I have proactively raised this issue with my interstate colleagues, who are also dealing with these matters. I was successful in getting their support at the corrective services ministers meeting in Sydney recently. That will see the ACT lead research, through the course of this year, to be presented at the 2018 corrective services ministers’ conference, on the increased rates of female offending and imprisonment. It will present recommendations on how Corrective Services might respond to this and, potentially, recommendations on what we need to do to engage, in a whole-of-government way, to address these issues.
The ACT government is not simply looking at increased numbers of female detainees as a blunt accommodation issue. We are taking the lead in Australia on programs designed under the justice reinvestment framework that seek to reduce crime in our community and reduce recidivism and reoffending. This is important work that requires long-term determination and commitment and whole-of-government coordination. I would be more than happy to arrange for briefings for any members of the Assembly on the full scope of the programs we are rolling out and the broader justice reinvestment objectives and plans, as I believe we are on the right track.
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