Page 921 - Week 03 - Thursday, 10 March 2016
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I want to remind members of this prison population growth experience. In the program year 2011-12, the AMC averaged just over 259 detainees. Then from early in 2013 we began to experience quite unprecedented growth in a short period of time. During the 2013 calendar year the actual number of detainees jumped significantly from less than 240 in January to exceeding 300 for the first time at the end of June 2013. The number then rose to more than 340 in October 2013 before dropping and stabilising for a time. The impact of this growth was revealed in the 2013-14 average daily figure which was more than 331—an average jump of more than 70, or about 28 per cent, in just two years.
Since then there have been periods of relative stability punctuated by periods of dramatic growth. Our daily average in 2014-15 was 342, but we were again experiencing more alarming increases in the second half of calendar year 2015. We exceeded 400 for the first time in October 2015 and got as high as 418 in November. In January we reached as high as 427. Numbers have eased since then but have not dropped below 410.
It goes without saying that these sorts of numbers have placed an incredible strain on the AMC, its staff and management. In this period, when we also factor in the problematic detainee association issues which have marked our experience of running a prison in the ACT, the daily juggling of detainee placements and bed availability has been enormously challenging and stressful. I commend the staff and management at the AMC for the outstanding way they have dealt with these challenges. Clearly, the availability of the new facilities will help ease these pressures. But this sort of growth in incarceration is not what we want for our city. Placing individuals in prison, while a sad and necessary reality for the safety of the community, is both very expensive and disruptive for the community, even when it gives offenders the opportunity to address their behaviour.
We will again try to get a better understanding of this growth and ways to reduce it. Members will recall that in 2013 we engaged criminal justice analyst John Walker to prepare projections of future detainee numbers, the so-called Walker projections. Our successful building expansion project had regard for these projections. Annual reviews of the projections were part of the government’s expectations, and the next review will take place in the first half of this year. A more detailed evaluation of detainee projections is planned to occur every four to five years.
A lesson we have learnt from our projection exercise, however, is that external and unforeseen factors unrelated to corrections continue to drive up detainee numbers. I am thinking of a number of tragic and disturbing violent deaths, both interstate and in Canberra, in recent times and the impact of a broad community response to domestic and family violence. These events cannot be predicted and cannot, therefore, be factored into forecasting until after they happen. This, once again, confirms the view I have expressed in the past that forecasting trends in prison populations is not an exact science and is notoriously unreliable. Still, we have to try to inform ourselves as much as we can.
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