Page 4292 - Week 13 - Thursday, 19 November 2015
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predict that in New South Wales a crash in gas usage is more likely than a shortage of supply as some users are forced out of the market by rising prices and others shift modes to electricity because of efficiencies.
In the ACT some of the benefits of switching to electricity in terms of cost are exaggerated by the low cost of electricity as compared to other states, although our chilly climate probably offsets some of those savings. However, this brings me to the second reason that people might make the switch: a 2014 research study undertaken by the Alternative Technology Association called Are we still cooking with gas, reviewed by the COAG Energy Council, indicated that “it is no longer economic for any new home, or existing all-electric home, located anywhere in the ACT to connect to mains or bottled gas—as compared with installing and operating efficient electric appliance alternatives”.
This was basically a study that compared home heating with gas versus home heating with efficient electric heat pumps such as split systems and found that the latter stacked up very well. The study also looked at comparisons across hot water and cooking. It was the first detailed piece of research that considered the impact of future gas price rises on Australian households. On top of this, households are likely to give increasing consideration to whether it is not more efficient to avoid what can be expensive monthly connection fees and consolidate all their accounts into one electricity account.
The second reason people might be swayed into not connecting to gas is government or developer incentives that drive them towards electric or solar technologies. Rebates for specific technologies, such as efficient heat pumps or solar hot water, could drive people further in that direction. The mandating of solar hot water in the new suburb of Coombs in Molonglo will at least lower the consumption of gas in that suburb, if not the take-up rate. This, in itself could affect the capacity to recoup costs on the infrastructure that has been put in place.
A third reason is that people actually want to be more sustainable. The ACT is heading for 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2025, and one can imagine that many people may wish to have 100 per cent electricity as a way of being 100 per cent renewable at home. People will better understand soon that the renewable energy target is actually a renewable electricity target and they will remember that, even though gas was branded natural in days gone by, it is not a renewable resource; it is, in fact, a fossil fuel. Canberrans will understand the need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and will choose electricity over gas so that their homes can be run off renewable electricity provided through the ACT’s large-scale feed-in tariff.
As gas prices are predicted to go up in the medium term and electric home heating becomes more efficient, many Canberrans will choose to make the switch away from natural gas, and yet we are still rolling out expensive gas infrastructure in our new suburbs. Of course, the demand for gas can place more pressure for supply, potentially, and this will drive coal seam gas exploration. We know the impact that that has on our rural land use and water.
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