Page 920 - Week 03 - Tuesday, 20 March 2012
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MS HUNTER (Ginninderra—Parliamentary Leader, ACT Greens) (3.48): I am very pleased to bring this matter of public importance forward today. The timing for a discussion on evidence-based responses to crime really could not be any better.
As some members may be aware, last week saw the release of one of the most comprehensive reports on the criminal justice system ever conducted in Australia. Carried out over 12 years across all of the 153 local government areas in New South Wales, the results should make all politicians sit up and take notice. The results should speak particularly loudly to us here in the ACT, given that we are an island in New South Wales. The report was carried out by the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. It is available from the bureau’s website, and I recommend it highly to all members.
The study looks at three key variables and their impact on crime: firstly, the risk of arrest; secondly, the risk of imprisonment after being found guilty; and, thirdly, the length of the sentence imposed. The study was also able to measure the impact of household income.
The director of the bureau, Dr Don Weatherburn, summarised the findings as follows:
Increasing the risk of arrest and the likelihood of going to prison produces modest reductions in property and violent crime, but increasing the length of prison sentence exerts no effect at all.
The best crime prevention tool in the long run is not tougher penalties or more police or better rehabilitation programs, it’s a strong and vibrant economy.
The numbers that back up Dr Weatherburn’s summary are quite striking. The study was able to determine that a 10 per cent increase in household income correlated with a 14 to 18 per cent decrease in property and violent crime over the long term. On the other hand, a 10 per cent increase in the risk of arrest saw around a one or three per cent drop in crime. A 10 per cent increase in risk of imprisonment saw about a one per cent drop. Finally, changes to the length of sentence exerted no measurable effect at all.
The conclusion reached by the study was:
The criminal justice system plays a significant role in preventing crime. Some criminal justice variables, however, exert much stronger effects than others. Increasing arrest rates is likely to have the largest impact, followed by increasing the likelihood of receiving a prison sentence. Increasing the length of stay in prison beyond current levels does not appear to impact on the crime rate after accounting for increases in arrest and imprisonment likelihood.
The final sentence of the conclusion section is one that I want to particularly focus on. It states:
Policy makers should focus more attention on strategies that increase the risk of arrest and less on strategies that increase the severity of punishment.
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