Page 684 - Week 02 - Wednesday, 22 February 2012
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Let me look at the CommSec report from 23 January 2012. The three-speed economy is what they talk about now in the CommSec State of the states report. I know that the Chief Minister loved quoting this when she was Treasurer, when things were really rosy and, by default, we ended up at the top of the pile. But it now talks about the three-speed economy. And CommSec has now relegated the ACT to the second tier. I will quote:
In the second tier of economies are Victoria and ACT, with little separating them. Both economies benefit from above average dwelling starts and overall housing finance—for new as well as established dwellings. But while Victoria also has performed well on retail spending, the ACT lags in this area. The ACT also leads in terms of population growth compared with the long-term average. But while unemployment is low, it is now above its long-term average.
That is the problem. ACT unemployment is always low against the national average. But according to CommSec it is now above its long-term average—something that Ms Porter forgot to tell us. That is an indicator. Of course, employment is a lagging indicator. If it is above its long-term average now, and as an indicator it is lagging, it does make you question what might happen in the future.
When you go to the second page of the CommSec statement, they look at retail trade. Western Australia was the strongest, courtesy of low unemployment and its mining boom. Victoria was next, with spending 15 per cent above decade averages, followed by Queensland and South Australia. ACT is now at the bottom of the leader board, with spending up just 6.4 per cent on the decade average. Spending is also 2.7 per cent lower than a year ago. Again, let us be measured in what we say. These are indicators. We have to take these into account in the context of what is happening internationally, nationally and in the local environment. But again, that is not something that Ms Porter undertook to tell us about the state of the ACT economy.
Ms Porter says that there are lots of signs that show we have got a great economy across many sectors. She says there is very low unemployment. But our employment is above the long-term average now, so there is a problem there. We know that, for instance, retail is lagging. I like (v), which refers to the “lower proportion of tax to Gross State Product than the national average”. There is a statistic!
Let us go to gross state product. From the Australian national accounts, series 5220.0, we see a slowing. The 2006-07 percentage change from the previous year in the level per million dollars was 4.4 per cent of growth. In 2007-08 it was three per cent. In 2008-09 it was 3.5 per cent. In 2009-10 it was 3.2 per cent. In 2010-11 it was 2.8 per cent. The growth is declining. That is the trend. If that continues, we need to be very careful. If we go to the levels per capita—
Mr Barr: There is a really significant recession in most parts of the world, Brendan.
MR SMYTH: Fairly significant recession? Well—
Mr Barr interjecting—
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