Page 2934 - Week 07 - Wednesday, 29 June 2011
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Of course that is what the CommSec report says—the CommSec report, which the Treasurer is quite keen to quote when it says we have got the best economy in the country. And we do, simply because all of the others fell away. It is hardly of any credit to the Treasurer that we are at that stage. It is more a strength of the underlying fundamentals of the economy, particularly the huge dependence we have on federal government spending. If you are going to take the good news, you have to take the bad news. And the bad news is that CommSec confirms the trend in the revenue, and that is that we were insulated from the GFC. It does not say partially or mainly. It says we were insulated from the GFC.
This brings me to my second trend. The real issue is the inability of the ACT Labor government to control its spending. If you consider the major areas of spending in the ACT budget, nearly half our budget is spent on wages. But how much are salaries and wages estimated to increase during 2011-12? Seven per cent. And you simply need to refer to budget paper 3, page 72, to see that. While other states in their budgets are talking in terms of increasing wages in the order of 2.5 per cent, the ACT is at nearly three times this level. We are in something like cloud-cuckoo-land if we believe that this is sustainable. I truly believe this Treasurer has no idea of what is going on in the real world.
It brings us to some of the economic progress. In general terms, most of the projections set out in the budget would appear to be quite reasonable, given the unknowns or risks that continue to prevail. I think we are all watching with interest what is happening in Greece and the debt crisis that they face, the continuing debt crisis in the United States, indeed the debt crises of many other countries, rising inflation in China, the two-speed or possibly the three-speed economy that operates currently in Australia and the looming prospect of higher inflation in Australia.
However, there is a question on the rate of unemployment in the ACT and indeed there is the huge issue of the skills shortage. It is interesting to note from the monthly bulletins from the ABS that the ACT has a fairly consistent rate of unemployment in the order of three per cent. I think we need to consider a recent analysis, however, of those people who may wish to work. For people who need to refer to the ABS bulletin, it is 6220. The ABS has estimated at present there are 2.8 million Australians who fall into the categories of those who are unemployed and who wish to work, who are working part time and want to work full time, who are working short hours and want full-time work, who are working part time and want full-time work or who have given up looking for work but would work if they could find a job.
Based on the bureau’s analysis, there are something like another 13,000 or 14,000 people in the ACT who would like to work. I am not suggesting we add those into our unemployment figures, which would take the rate from three to nine per cent, but what it shows is that almost one in 10 people in the ACT who could be in the labour force are not in the type of work or the work conditions that they would prefer. I mention this simply to emphasise that some economic parameters may not reveal all that can be shown, and indeed that analysis does need to take great care.
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