Page 958 - Week 03 - Tuesday, 29 March 2011
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As daunting as it sounds, peak oil actually presents a significant opportunity to us and to urban areas—in fact, to all areas of the world. The impact of peak oil creates the real prospect that public transport, walking and cycling could become the dominant modes of transport and public transport the dominant motorised motor travel in our city.
High oil prices may actually force us to embrace better alternatives. Look at what happened in a number of European cities. For example, Copenhagen, which is famous for its high use of bicycles and walking, started supporting these travel modes during a period of petrol rationing. There was a second resurgence in the beginning of the 1970s due to the energy crisis. I do not think there are any policymakers around the world who would say that Copenhagen’s actions have not paid off handsomely. They now have one of the most sustainable, efficient and popular transport systems in the world.
Transport issues, of course, overlap considerably with broader planning issues. Our planning strategy must include how we deal with peak oil. Obviously the distribution of new developments influences the kind of travel patterns our city supports and requires. The more we build detached houses in greenfield developments at Canberra’s fringes, the more difficulties we will face. The government has promised the policy of 50 per cent development within a 7.5 kilometre radius of Civic and 50 per cent further out. But this is simply not happening. Canberra is still pushing ever outwards and the real ratio is more like 70 per cent outer and 30 per cent closer in.
While a more compact and connected urban form certainly enhances the options for less oil-dependent transport, it is not the be all and end all. As transport planners Paul Mees and John Stone show in their recent work, it is possible to significantly improve public transport patronage and its economic efficiency without needing to change our urban density. International best practice shows how public transport can work very effectively in suburbia. The real impasses are political ones.
I hope Mr Barr will speak on this MPI, because we need our planning minister to understand peak oil and to show leadership in the process of reform, which will mean that Canberra will be ready for it, I trust. I trust also Mr Stanhope, as transport minister, will speak.
Peak oil is also relevant to the type of homes we are building in Canberra. The price of natural gas rises when oil prices rise. As access to oil diminishes, the natural gas price will rise and this has implications for many, many Canberra households which depend on natural gas for home and water heating. As prices rise, the poorest households may not be able to heat their homes in winter.
We need alternatives, especially for the most vulnerable. Well-insulated houses and solar hot-water systems will go a long way to reducing gas and electricity usage. We need to make sure that public housing, low income earners and rental properties, as well as new buildings, all have well-insulated houses and energy efficient hot water.
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