Page 1254 - Week 04 - Wednesday, 25 March 2009
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Of the total impact on our economy, about one-third is driven by economic and fiscal issues—and about two-thirds of it is driven by confidence, or lack of confidence. So, indeed, our economic future is very much in our hands.
In fact, as Mr Peters says, on his assessment, two-thirds of the factors that determine the health of an economy are around the issue of confidence. As far as the effects of a typical recession are concerned—and we went to those issues yesterday quite fully—the ACT can hardly be described as being in recession.
The monthly labour force survey results released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in February 2009 showed trend unemployment at 2.4 per cent, the lowest level of unemployment ever recorded since surveys commenced in 1978. At 2.4 per cent, the trend unemployment in the ACT measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in February 2009 is the lowest ever recorded. The Australian Bureau of Statistics have never recorded a lower rate of unemployment than that which they recorded last month—four weeks ago. This is the number one indicator of the robustness of an economy and the way in which an economy is performing.
Employment held through this survey, and the number of unemployed fell slightly. Most notably, and I think significantly, the number of people in full-time employment increased in January. The number of people in full-time employment increased. The ACT was the only jurisdiction other than Queensland and the Northern Territory to record a trend increase in full-time employment in Australia during that period. Now, those are not the marks of a recession. Even at a technical level, care needs to be taken in interpreting the accounts.
Indeed, the Canberra Times recently reported ABS analyst, Mr Smedes, saying it was important to be cautious in drawing conclusions from the ACT figures on account of the impact of both imports and the volatile public investment component. This is a time of great economic uncertainty. Many people have experienced falls in wealth resulting from direct investments in equities or through their superannuation holdings in equities. This reduction in wealth has impacted on confidence and spending—of course it has. It is irresponsible, however, to talk down the economy all the time, and most particularly at this time. It is what industry leaders like Chris Peters are rightly counselling most specifically the Liberal Party against. Mr Peters is directly counselling the Liberal Party: stop talking this economy down, stop talking Canberra down.
There are sound, objective reasons to conclude that the ACT economy is sound. It is useful to put these things in perspective. Both the household consumption and private investment components of demand in the ACT recorded positive growth in the December quarter 2008. In seasonally adjusted terms, household consumption was up 0.8 per cent and private investment was up 1.7 per cent.
Victoria was the only other jurisdiction in Australia to record positive growth in household consumption and private investment in the December quarter 2008. Only two jurisdictions in Australia recorded a growth in household consumption and private investment—the ACT and Victoria. Indeed, the volume of private investment
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