Page 3628 - Week 10 - Tuesday, 26 August 2008
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The long-term practical capacity of Canberra International Airport’s existing runways … has been assessed as 282,119 fixed wing aircraft movements per annum … it is projected that this capacity will be reached between 2050 and 2060 … with the constraints upon Sydney Airport … and particularly given the population growth in the Sydney-Canberra Corridor, additional traffic is likely to shift to Canberra, bringing forward the date at which Canberra Airport in its current configuration will reach capacity.
To put this estimate into perspective, 282,119 aircraft movements would entail an average of one aircraft movement every one minute and 52 seconds. On one hand, the airport’s executive tells us not to worry, because this is an ambit claim, but, on the other hand, it is there in black and white in the draft master plan. The master plan also includes projections for annual aircraft movements for the next 20 years. By 2027 to 2028, the forecast is for a low-range estimate of 136,209, a medium-range estimate of 149,425 and a high-range estimate of 150,551, more than double the current flight numbers.
There are other issues of concern. The severe threats posed by climate change need little discussion here. The Garnaut report suggests that the world is moving towards high risks of dangerous climate change more rapidly than has generally been understood. The Australia Institute released a paper calculating likely increases in greenhouse emissions caused by the proposed expansion of Canberra airport. The figures are based upon the airport’s prediction that long-term practical capacity will be reached by 2050. Based on the airport’s figures they conclude:
By 2050, aviation emissions are projected to be twice as large as the ACT’s total emission allowance, accounting for 216 per cent of its permitted emissions.
The institute argues that these are conservative projections. I should not need to detail the consequences of allowing such growth in emissions to proceed. Where they are counted—I am sure that the Chief Minister hopes that it is not here in the ACT, because it would blow his already weak carbon budget out of the water—does not really matter, since greenhouse gases have impact beyond the place of origin. Indeed, the proposed aviation emissions by 2050 would make it impossible for us to achieve the ACT government’s weak emissions reductions targets, even if the rest of the ACT produced no emissions at all.
In a press release on 21 January this year, our Chief Minister argued that aviation does not and should not fall within the ACT’s climate strategy. He argued that the ACT’s emission reduction target was developed to be compatible with those adopted by other states and territories, with federal Labor’s election policy and those in the European Union. None of these targets address aviation emissions in the manner suggested by the Australia Institute report.
It would be impractical for the ACT to ignore international practice and adopt an expensive and complex monitoring system for the relatively few air kilometres travelled within the ACT’s small air space. For a start, there would be no requirement for a monitoring system. All we need to know is how many aircraft came in and out of the ACT. This is a terribly disappointing, weak response. The Chief Minister refuses
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