Page 4942 - Week 15 - Thursday, 15 December 2005
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committed to do by 2008; increase opportunities for social encounters; reduce the human impacts of air pollution and traffic accidents; and increase fitness.
Turning to peak oil, I should not have to—and I do not have the time to do so—argue today that we will never again see oil-based products at prices we have come to regard as normal. I expect my colleagues are already well aware of these facts. To summarise, with crude oil above $US50 a barrel, experts are predicting that in 2008 global oil production will peak and thenceforth decline. This will occur without political events such as the war in Iraq and human exacerbated natural events like the New Orleans disaster adding further uncertainties to oil supplies. It will also be a factor even without the huge growing markets of China and other parts of the world which are now demanding their share of oil supplies.
This is one case where the market must not be allowed to determine our adaptation to a world with dwindling supplies of oil. The process of adjustment will inevitably favour those who already profit from oil and will be able to afford it, no matter the price. We can expect more wars for oil, food for oil sanctions and social unrest as poverty bites those who cannot work either because they cannot afford to get there or because their jobs went with the oil.
We cannot afford to let oil run out either. It is essential for the production of many goods that are essential to our way of life. Things we are not going to willingly dispense with—nor should we have to—are plastic bags, which are often used unnecessarily but are sometimes essential; bottles; pipes; fertilisers and pesticides; lipsticks—I can give those up—and pharmaceuticals. It is a long list, and there is much more. The fact is that oil, even if not used in products, is used in the transport methods that bring the products to us.
Letting the market solve our oil problem will not help the community and the voluntary organisations who deliver so many services to our most marginalised citizens. Government grants are already stretched thin. Paying more for petrol threatens the ability of many groups to maintain their services. Because these groups are the buffer against need and hardship in our community, they must themselves be buffered against petrol prices which have not been budgeted for. The International Energy Agency does not rely on the market to reduce oil demand. I will quote from something released earlier this year. It says that a rapid demand response, especially if coordinated against International Energy Agency countries, can send a strong market signal—ie, we have to tell the market what to do. The IEA recommends many of the initiatives that I will outline briefly later.
Despite its inevitability, I think we have time to act to reduce the shock of oil price shortages on Canberra. The year 2008—the target year for reducing greenhouse gases dropped last year by the Stanhope government—is also the year in which oil supply is expected to peak. Our government has a number of policy instruments it can use to work with Canberra people to make our city a leader in cooperative efforts to make Canberra more liveable and more sustainable. Today I will mention just some initiatives already working elsewhere. Sadly, this government is yet to show visionary leadership in reacting to climate change and rising oil prices. I expect to hear many of your ideas in today’s discussion. Oil scarcity must be regarded as an opportunity as well as a challenge. By the way, people will perhaps argue with my information about peak oil but
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