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Legislative Assembly for the ACT: 2004 Week 05 Hansard (Friday, 14 May 2004) . . Page.. 1963 ..

proceeding suggests to me that the government is attempting to delay the need to make any payments for wage increases until next financial year.

Likewise, we have the shifting of Actew’s dividend from this year to next year. To the outside observer this strategy appears to be simply seeking to shift revenue and spending from one year to the next, with the result that the budget outcomes for each year are affected in a most artificial way. A most unfortunate consequence of this strategy is the adverse impact that it will have on the public servants concerned—public servants who are hard working and who deserve appropriate recompense at the appropriate time.

Of course, the Treasurer’s credibility has been shot to pieces when it comes to budget estimates. Given his track record, the figures in this budget are simply not believable; so no-one should take this budget too seriously. The outcome, we all know, will be very different from the figures contained in this budget.

The blow-out in expenditures, for example, shows a consistent pattern of the inability of the government to control its spending. In 2001-02, the first year of this government, the expenditure blow-out was $166 million. In 2003-03 the blow-out was $183 million, and in 2003-04 the blow-out is expected to be $196 million, if you can believe it. That’s an average $180 million error, and it’s getting worse.

These figures demonstrate either that the government had no intention of sticking to its budget or that it is hopelessly incapable of managing its finances—perhaps both. And perhaps the Treasurer is an accountant, although I would point out, so was Arthur Andersen. Whatever the explanation, the figures clearly carry the message that the Treasurer’s budget cannot be believed. So when he says that expenditure in this budget will be $2.6 billion, if he’s true to form it will be nearer to $2.8 billion, that is, some $200 million greater than the budget figure.

The Treasurer has got away with this so far, Mr Speaker. He has got away with overspending $180 million each year because huge windfall revenues have baled him out. This approach is unsustainable, and even the Treasurer admits that on page 96 of BP3, and I quote:

The estimated outcome continues to remain flat in 2005-06 as expenditure outstrips revenue growth—

But even worse is the lost opportunity that this government had to strengthen the ACT as it faces the inevitable slowdown from recent levels of strong economic activity. With a government that is unable to control its spending, the community has every reason to be very concerned that what will happen as the windfall revenue bonanza that we have experienced over the last three years dries up. That is why this situation is not sustainable.

This Labor government simply cannot continue to increase spending as it has done over the past three years. At the same time, caution will be required with respect to some of the key assumptions that underlie this budget.

In the federal budget that was brought down earlier this week the Commonwealth government suggested the outlook for inflation and interest rates during 2004-05 should

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