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Legislative Assembly for the ACT: 2002 Week 8 Hansard (25 June) . . Page.. 2202 ..
MR QUINLAN (continuing):
Household consumption growth has exceeded expectations as consumers have taken advantage of low real interest rates and substantially increased their use of revolving credit.
Public consumption, which is predominantly Commonwealth government expenditure, has also increased more than expected.
Private investment rebounded strongly this year, supported by dwelling investment as a consequence of lower interest rates and the first home owner scheme. This is reflected in building approvals and housing finance commitments, which are both well up in year-to-date average terms.
In 2002-03, growth in state final demand is forecast to slow to 2.8 per cent as higher interest rates and lower growth in public expenditure impact on demand. Beyond 2002-03, moderate growth in demand is forecast, based on moderate growth in public consumption and subdued growth in private consumption.
Mr Speaker, the pattern of employment growth in the ACT is more volatile than that of Australia, due to the size of our labour market and our narrow employment base, which is greatly influenced by the public sector.
Employment in the ACT grew by 2.7 per cent in 2000-01, in year-average terms, reaching record levels in the process. Employment levels were well down in the first seven months of 2001-02 but have been increasing since.
Notwithstanding this recovery, the extent of the earlier decline means that employment levels are not expected to grow in this financial year.
The revised outlook for 2001-02 is a considerable downward revision on last year's budget estimate of 1.3 per cent. The decline in employment was evidenced mainly in tourism, hospitality and related sectors. This is attributed to the collapse of Ansett and the lengthy recess of the Commonwealth parliament in the period prior to and after the federal election.
Employment in 2002-03 is expected to recover and grow at 1 per cent, and is forecast to remain at or around this rate of growth for the next few years. This reflects a return to normal conditions. However, employment will remain dependent on public expenditure growth.
This budget contributes to job growth. In the public sector there will be some churn, but the overall impact will be increased public sector jobs.
Mr Speaker, I now turn to our priority areas.
Education
Education is of strategic importance to Canberra and a key investment in our future. That is why this government has delivered on its promise to invest a further $27 million in education over the period of this budget. This is on top of maintaining per capita funding to education in real terms.
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