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Legislative Assembly for the ACT: 2002 Week 3 Hansard (7 March) . . Page.. 718 ..

MR HUMPHRIES (continuing):

a report which manages to show that the operating result of $12.285 million has suddenly become a deficit of $5 million.

Mr Speaker, I might say first of all that in a budget of nearly $2 billion, the difference between $12.3 million in surplus and $5 million in deficit is very little indeed. It is not exactly a great indictment of the former government's capacity to bring in a surplus that a variation of that tiny magnitude in our figures should now be supposedly brought to light.

But let us put that issue to one side. Mr Speaker, the argument being put forward by Mr Quinlan as a result of this paper is that if a number of factors that were known to the Treasury as of October 2001, or ought to have been known to Treasury as of October 2001, had properly been taken into account in the preparation of the figures at that time, they would have shown the position to be other than that which was presented by Treasury in October and in the update that I tabled I think on 2 October-an update which showed in fact our surplus improving rather than deteriorating, as this figure now demonstrates.

Mr Speaker, first of all let us look at the methodology that was used to arrive at these figures. Mr Quinlan is able to push a precise figure on the superannuation and investment adjustment by virtue of the deterioration in the overseas investment market. That matter has been much discussed in this place, many comments have been made about it, and it appears that we can now crystallise a figure-a figure which, incidentally, Treasury could not quantify for me as Treasurer but apparently can quantify for Mr Quinlan. That figure, Mr Speaker, is $63 million-he now puts a loss of $63 million on that figure.

I might point out, Mr Speaker, that were it not for that loss, for that figure appearing in these statements, the surplus would be in fact much more substantial than the $38.78 million, nearly $39 million dollars, which was predicted to be the surplus position at the time of the October update. So much depends in these figures on the $63 million projected loss from the territory's total investments in superannuation, much of which is overseas.

Mr Speaker, that is the vantage point taken as of October 2001. My advice is that there are indications of significant improvements in the investment market since that time. Let us suppose that this $63 million is an estimate-I suspect an extremely pessimistic estimate-and that this pessimism is proven to be unfounded to the tune of, let us say, 10 per cent. Let us say that it is a 10 per cent exaggeration of the position in respect of the overseas investments. Mr Speaker, if that were to be the case, and all other things in this document being taken as granted, the so-called loss suddenly becomes a surplus. The loss suddenly becomes a surplus.

Mr Quinlan: No, we had to dig up another $18 million out of previous years.

MR HUMPHRIES: I will come to those things. So Mr Speaker, the suggestion that you could put much reliance on a figure which is supposed to be backcast to October of last year as the supposed position with respect to superannuation investments for the end of this present financial year is, with great respect, laughable. There only needs to be a small exaggeration in those figures and Mr Quinlan's deficit disappears.

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