Page 984 - Week 04 - Tuesday, 19 April 1994
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can have at some stage during the course of the next few months. I do agree with him, however, that it is an appropriate referendum question to be put to the community at large. I am happy to change the four-year term provisions to three-year term provisions. Perhaps the question can be revisited in the future.
MS FOLLETT (Chief Minister and Treasurer) (8.54): Madam Speaker, it is interesting that this is a matter on which we are all agreed, apparently, and it has led to the longest debate on any topic so far in this legislation. There are a couple of concluding remarks that I want to make. The first relates to Mr Stevenson's poll and to the methods that he has used. I share Mr Moore's concern about Mr Stevenson's methods. I am not an expert in sampling or polling, Mr Stevenson, but the advice that I have is that you would have required around 2,000 respondents for a valid poll on this issue. Also, Madam Speaker, the fact that all of Mr Stevenson's polling was done in shopping centres indicates, I think, that the replies have not been weighted according to demographics or otherwise to ensure that it is a representative sample of the wider population. Those are some concerns I have.
I have read the questions that Mr Stevenson asked on this matter, Madam Speaker. On the question of the term, Mr Stevenson's question was, "Should the term of the ACT Legislative Assembly be either two years, three years or four years?". "Either" usually relates to one of two, but in Mr Stevenson's poll there are three options given. My first question, Mr Stevenson, is: Why did you not include in your questionnaire "Should the term of the next ACT Legislative Assembly be abolished? Tick the box."? Was it because you were worried that people might have agreed with you and expected you to do something about it? I was very surprised not to have seen that included.
Madam Speaker, the other thing which Mr Stevenson's polling proves to me is that you can do anything with statistics. If you look at the results of Mr Stevenson's poll on the term of the next Assembly you will see that the three options he put forward got very close results. There is nothing in it - 29 per cent, 34 per cent and 32 per cent. People who are clever with statistics could say that, on Mr Stevenson's poll, 66 per cent of respondents want three years or more as the term for the Assembly. You can do anything with statistics. Madam Speaker, with regret, I have put aside Mr Stevenson's sample.
Mr Stevenson: That is not true. The centre-point is three years.
MADAM SPEAKER: Order! Mr Stevenson, you have had your turn.
MS FOLLETT: I would like to say in response to Mr Humphries and Mr Moore, who have indicated a personal preference for a four-year term, that if they want to rely on a referendum to achieve that they are on very shaky ground indeed. It is a fact that, in Australia, referendums on any question are most unlikely to be passed. In the particular case of four-year terms we have two examples to go on - one in Queensland, where the four-year term was rejected, and one in New South Wales, where there was a similar result but the Government decided to implement it anyway. Madam Speaker, I caution those people who wish to put the matter to a referendum that, if their intention is to obtain a four-year term by way of referendum, that course would be far from certain.
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