Page 6192 - Week 19 - Tuesday, 17 December 1991
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FORWARD ESTIMATES 1992-93 TO 1994-95
Paper
MS FOLLETT (Chief Minister and Treasurer) (3.09): For the information of members, I present the Forward Estimates for the period 1992-93 to 1994-95, and I move:
That the Assembly takes note of the paper.
Mr Speaker, today I present the Forward Estimates report for 1992-93 to 1994-95. This report forecasts the ACT Government's financial position for the next three financial years, based on existing policies as set out in the 1991-92 budget. Where applicable, the estimates in the report also reflect the impact of forecast levels of price movement, population, employment and urban development. As with previous reports, the publication of the Forward Estimates is an integral part of the Government's financial management practices. It is an essential planning document, and as such will provide the framework upon which the Government will base its 1992-93 post-election budget strategy.
The monetary and fiscal qualities of the Commonwealth continue to have a greater impact on ACT finances than does the state of the national economy. The ACT economy is faring relatively well in 1991, buoyed by stable public sector employment and strong population growth. Forecasts of economic prospects for the ACT remain closely linked to Commonwealth Government policies.
Mr Speaker, for the ACT Government, the reality is that the level of financial assistance from the Commonwealth will continue to decline across the period covered by this report. There is considerable uncertainty over the extent of this decline. Although the Commonwealth has agreed to maintain general revenue assistance to the States and Territories in real terms in 1992-93 and 1993-94, it is likely that any indexation related increase for the ACT will be offset by net reductions in the transitional payments provided through the Commonwealth Grants Commission relativity factor in 1991-92. Such reductions, estimated at around $10m per annum, will be aimed at progressively moving the ACT onto comparable State-like funding levels.
On the capital side of the budget, a new capital works program of $76m per annum is included in the Estimates, consistent with the level of the 1991-92 program. This is in addition to full commitment to the hospitals redevelopment program. The actual level of new work will be decided in the budget context. The Estimates show that a borrowing requirement averaging some $30m per annum results from a capital program of this size.
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