Page 1621 - Week 06 - Wednesday, 2 June 2021
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the moment. These are not future projections, although they are projected to get worse in the future.
But I do not want to focus on these impacts today. I want to focus on the solutions, because the solutions are clear, and they are available to us now. This call for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty is about shifting the global focus to these solutions and accelerating our global response. The time to act is now, and we need to move quickly and work together if we are to succeed. Over 1,200 of the world’s eminent scientists, academics and researchers have supported the call for this treaty.
They state:
We … call on governments around the world to adopt and implement a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, as a matter of urgency, to protect the lives and livelihoods of present and future generations …
They go on to explain:
… efforts to reduce demand for fossil fuels will be undermined if supply continues to grow. Continued production means either that fossil fuels will continue to be burnt for energy—pushing the world towards catastrophic global warming—or that the industry and countries reliant on fossil fuels will face massive stranded assets, stranded workers, and stranded economies,
They go on to say:
While the Paris Agreement lays an important foundation for action on the demand-side of the equation, without international cooperation and policy processes focusing on the supply of fossil fuels, countries will continue to overshoot their already insufficient emissions targets.
If we are to meet the goal of the Paris agreement to keep warming to below 1.5 degrees, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be at least 45 per cent lower by 2030. To have a chance of meeting this target, we must stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible. The burning of coal, oil and gas is the greatest contributor to climate change, responsible for almost 80 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution. The treaty will call to end the expansion of fossil fuel production, phase out existing production of fossil fuels, and invest in a transformational plan to ensure 100 per cent access to renewable energy globally, while supporting a just transition for workers and fossil fuel-dependent nations.
The global carbon budget concept is useful for understanding why we need to act immediately. If we wish to keep warming to below 1.5 or two degrees Celsius, then the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions must be kept below the carbon budget set by nature for that amount of warming. The budget is not an annual one, but rather a cumulative one for all time—past, present and future. The carbon budget cannot be modified to suit the needs of humans; it is a fundamental feature of the way the Earth works. Once the carbon budget has been spent, net emissions must be held to zero from that point onward to avoid exceeding the temperature target.
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